Weiss Money Network

Deflation

August 20, 2010

In the Federal Reserve’s most recent statement, policy makers indicated that they are willing to take aggressive steps to keep interest rates low and encourage economic growth if the job market and other indicators continue to weaken. This is a further shift away from the central bank’s traditional focus on inflation and it signals an increasing concern about the opposite problem: Deflation.

Deflation is a pernicious enemy, and one that the U.S. economy hasn’t faced since the Great Depression. Not only does deflation diminish nest eggs and other investments as asset values decline, but it can create a vicious cycle. Why would consumers buy goods today when they will probably just be cheaper tomorrow? The FOMC is beginning to recognize that it must attack this problem, but it may be too little, too late.

In the next episode of Money and Markets, airing Thursday, August 26 at 7 p.m. ET, you’ll hear about a strategy for protecting yourself from deflation – and even profiting from it. A special roundtable of asset managers will explain how they’re putting that strategy into action. Plus, a frightening object lesson from Japan, a country that’s been battling deflation, unsuccessfully, for two decades.

Our government may not be able to prevent deflation, but by following this expert advice, you’ll be able to avoid the pain that’s in store for the rest of the economy.

{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }

1 alice August 27, 2010 at 12:35 am
What do we do now? Is gold (physical) and gold etfs the answer?

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2 vladimir August 27, 2010 at 3:58 am
Very nice and clever the episode of Money and Markets, at august 26, 2010. Best regards.

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3 Richard August 27, 2010 at 6:32 am
After well over a year this deflation/inflation argument is still going on – I suspect thwt we shall have deflation followed by inflation and when the latter takes hold watch out!

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4 kbill August 27, 2010 at 6:46 am
thank you for your information

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5 kbill August 27, 2010 at 6:48 am
GREAT TO HAVE SOMEONE LOOKING AFTER THE AMERICAN ECONOMY….THANK YOU

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6 Dave in NV August 27, 2010 at 12:40 pm
If inflation (i.e., ever rising nominal prices because of the depreciation of legally counterfeited dollars) is bad, then logically deflation must be good unless we assume that we have somehow reached a magical level of prices, a departure from which in either direction is undesirable. All this talk about deflation in the face of mountains of fiat dollars being created by the Fed (monetary inflation) is pure nonsense. The reason that we are not seeing severe price inflation right now is because banks are understandably unwilling to lend out that money at near zero rates when they can lend it back to the Treasury and get free cash (what a deal!) and this is keeping this “money” away from the marketplace. However market forces are building up and today’s artificially low rates can not last forever, Ben Bernanke notwithstanding, and when the rates finally begin to shoot up, banks will open their coffers resulting in both higher rates and price inflation at the same time. Also, when banks divert their money from the Treasury to the market, the Fed’s shortfall will increase by leaps and bounds and Bernanke will turn on his printing presses full blast (although he may meet with opposition from Hoenig). This is a technique he has learned from Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and it will have the same result – hyperinflation. However, borrowers will now become increasingly reluctant to borrow at those high rates. As a result, this price inflation will be mostly noticeable in goods which are purchased with cash and to a much lesser degree in assets that are mostly purchased with loans such as real estate.

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7 balboabob August 28, 2010 at 11:31 am
Very interesting show. I will spend some time researching hyper-stagflation, a new term for me.

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8 KP September 2, 2010 at 1:27 pm
Martin, you are the best… Liked the concluding comments

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9 Bruce C. September 2, 2010 at 6:24 pm
I’ve heard/read many different arguments concerning near-term inflation and deflation and, combined with my own personal observations and conversations with people, I’m expecting to see more of both effects. Generally speaking, there seems to be price inflation in goods and price deflation in labor and services. I attribute that to the global economy: Emerging market economies have created an increase in demand for materials and resources (hence price inflation for goods), and an increase in supply of workers/labor/services that cost much less than those in Western and Developed economies (hence price deflation in developed economies even as wages are increasing elsewhere.) The net effect of these dynamics in the US is that almost everyone has less income and their net worth has dropped as well, compared to a few years ago. Overall, that is a deflationary force because people are thus spending less. When they do spend they tend to be for necessities and/or they demand bargains, so the costs of services stay depressed and expensive goods are simply not bought. Personally I’ve experienced very little and sporadic price deflation of goods, but labor costs have definitely gone down. For example, I just received a notice from a material supplier that as of September 7, 2010 all steel based products will rise in price by 10% and all drywall material will increase by 20 to 30%. On that same day, however, I noticed significant sales on liquor (I mean like $8 off a $28 bottle). I asked the manager about it, expressing my surprise that “a good” (and especially liquor which people usually don’t skimp on when feeling depressed) was dropping in price. He told me that something is better than nothing, that it’s either that or go out of business. “Sales are slow,” he said, “people can’t afford it or don’t want to spend whatever money they have.” Also that same day, a friend of mine was asked to hire a new lawn maintenance company for a large country club. The original company offered to lower their price by 10%, but they found some other outfit that charged 20% less than that! (Of course they probably use illegal labor, play games with cash, etc., but what else is new?) Net, net, I predict both inflationary and deflationary forces will continue. I expect the FED to monetize more debt, buy equities and maybe municipal bonds too, and continue to extend and pretend. There will probably be crazy inconsistencies like falling real estate prices and a rising stock market. Bond yields could stay low despite higher inflation. Unemployment may increase along with factory output and export sales. All amidst very high volatility in gold and oil prices.

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10 Charles September 10, 2010 at 9:55 am
Martin, I am an American living here in Montreal. I have been here 40 years and will most likely not be moving back to the states. I subscribe to a few of your newsletters and always read your articles and listen to the videos. I am always at odds with my financial adviser who is telling me for example that Canadian banks are in good shape and that there is nothing to worry about. I know the Canadian economy is not as bad off as the American economy, however, it still is showing cracks. I would really appreciate a 1/2 hour on Canada, or a detailed article just on Canada. Thanks, Charles ps. and one gentleman used the word ‘hyperstagflation’ what exactly does that word mean?

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